As the count continues I’ll do occasional updates on various aspects of the election.

• Of course the big question is who will form government. I have no idea – looks like it could go either way. For now keep watching the counts in Hasluck, Brisbane, Denison, Corangamite and Dunkley. In particular Denison is a tough one, four way contests are tricky to predict!
• Many are pointing out that most people didn’t seem to want either Labor or Liberal to win and got they wanted. Note that the informal voters did not in any way achieve this – it’s the people who voted for other options.
• The AEC are recounting the seat the Grayndler as a two candidate preferred for ALP/Greens. I expect it will still be out of reach for the Greens since Labor’s Albanese has a very high primary but will be interesting to see how close it is. Note that the progressive count doesn’t mean too much right now, it’s booth by booth and they’ve only done 12/54 booths which aren’t necessarily representative of the whole electorate.
• The Age seemed to be trying to do a bit of a beat up about the Greens possibly supporting the Libs – all on the basis that Bob Brown said he’d talk to Tony Abbott. The Greens have made it perfectly clear that they will not form Government with the Coalition. They will however be sitting on the cross bench in the House of Reps, and will have balance of power in the senate – so what do people expect, should Bob Brown flat out refuse to talk to Tony Abbott? That would really be news. Regardless of whether Abbott turns out to be PM or opposition leader, it is entirely appropriate for the leader of the party holding balance in the Senate to meet with him, the Age have picked out one quote out of context and used it to make a sensationalist headline.
• The Senate is mostly settled though the last spot in Victoria is a tough call. Some people have been too quick to say that Fielding is out, he could still get in the last spot, though at the moment the ABC are predicting a win for the DLP! Not unprecedented, they picked up a seat in the Vic state parliament at the last election to give their first MP since the mid 70’s (when they had a NSW state MP who was elected when the sitting Liberal member failed to renominate in time – sometimes it’s been suggested he forgot but his side of the story is here.)
• I’ve seen quite a few comments around suggesting that it’s good now the Greens will get some scrutiny, and that people who voted for them will realise their error when finding out what the Greens are really like. For a start, the Greens voters tend to be well educated and probably are well aware of what the Greens policies are, but furthermore if there are voters out there with an unrealistic view of the Greens I think that it could well go the other way – if people believe the twisted version of the Greens often presented in the press (particularly Murdoch) then they’ll probably be pleasantly surprised when they learn more. It was interesting to view responses to the Vote-a-matic site that Fairfax did, where they put ALP, Lib & Green policies side by side and asked people to choose which one they agreed with – many seemed surprised at how much they agreed with the Greens (e.g. here).  Another point is that after watching tonight’s Media Watch about the poor performance of the press in the campaign is that it’s not as if the major parties have had that much scrutiny of their policies as the press has focused on trivialities.
• Malcolm Turnbull seems to really be enjoying himself on Q&A tonight – I guess a 10% swing puts you in a good mood! Next to him is an empty chair representing Mark Arbib who has just gotten even less popular (if possible).

While the overall result of the election is in doubt one thing is clear – there have been some great results for the Greens. Of course all results are not yet finalised, the figures quotes are the latest from the ABC website (or the AEC for any booth results)

Melbourne
I was confident about Adam Bandt winning Melbourne but was surprised at just how easily he did it. I thought it might be a nail biter but the result was clear pretty early in the night. Last time the Greens made history in Melbourne by getting ahead of the Liberals to be part of the two party preferred count, this time they not only easily won the two party preferred, but are actually starting to approach Labor’s primary vote  – Labor have 39.5% and the Greens 36.1%. The swing to the Greens is about 10%.

The Senate
At the last federal election The Greens had 3 senators elected (Tas,WA,SA). This time it is looking like 6 – one for each state. The only one that is close is NSW but it is looking good. In Victoria it looks like Richard Di Natale will be elected with over a quota, something the Greens have only previously achieved in Tasmania. This means he does not rely on preferences and is elected third out of the 6 Senators. Elsewhere there are other Greens also being elected before the last spot in the Senate count. Queensland has never elected a Greens senator before, this time Larissa Waters has received almost 13% of the vote, just short of a quota, but enough to be elected in 5th place – last time she missed out after getting 7.3%. Here in SA it’s another great result, we had a Senator elected for the first time in 2007, but an important factor there was the number of votes taken from ALP/Libs by Nick Xenophon, this time the Greens have over 13% of the vote and Penny Wright gets elected in 5th place. As expected Christine Milne and Rachel Siewert have been safely re-elected in Tasmania and WA. It is a shame that we couldn’t get a spot in the ACT but this was always very tough, it looks like the Libs have still managed to hold on to a quota. The Greens vote was an impressive 23%. The NT was never a chance, but the vote there is looking like about 14% which would be about a quota in a state.

Apart from the great result of now having 10 Greens in parliament, it is also notable that across the country the Greens vote has increased to a total of over 11%. In particular there are excellent swings in QLD, Vic and SA.

Queensland
In Queensland there were huge swings to the Greens which in many cases are a doubling of the vote, in particular in Brisbane and the Sunshine Coast. In Brisbane some of the swings to the Greens were Brisbane (9.5%), Lilley (6.1), Bonner (6.2), Griffith (7.3), Moreton (8.6), Oxley (6.4), Ryan (9.3), Rankin (6.8) and Blair (7.0). Other areas, particularly the northern suburbs, and the coast were lower but still there were many swings of over 4%. Also notable was the non-metropolitan seat of Wright (Gold Coast hinterland and up towards Toowoomba) with a 6.8% swing. On the Sunshine Coast there is Fisher (10.2) and Fairfax (9.4), both with a Green swing comparable to that in Melbourne!

Victoria
While the focus has rightly been on the seat of Melbourne, the overall vote for the Greens across many areas of Victoria is high, which has seen Richard Di Natale easily elected to a seat the Greens have never been able to get before. Apart from the seat of Melbourne there are other great results in inner city Melbourne, in particular the Greens are in the two party preferred count in Batman with a primary vote over 23%. Melbourne ports also has over 20%, and Wills is just below that. The Greens are in double figures or just short (quite a few eastern suburbs seats are between 9 and 10%) across much of metropolitan Melbourne. What’s also interesting are the gains in the seats outside the areas that have traditionally supported the Greens, outer suburban Calwell has a swing of over 7% to put the Greens in double figures, Corio (Geelong) has doubled to 12%, various  non-Melbourne seats  – Corangamite, Ballarat, Bendigo, McEwen, Flinders – all are over 10%. In Victoria it’s not just about Melbourne, the Greens have widespread support. The upcoming Victorian election in late November is a very exciting prospect.

South Australia
Here in SA we’ve also seen some big swings to the Greens. The highlights are Port Adelaide (6.3% swing), Hindmarsh (5.1), Kingston (6.6), Makin (5.5), Mayo (6.0) with a special mention to Jane Alcorn for getting an amazing 7.1% swing in Wakefield to lift the vote from 4 to 11% (must be all those latte sipping elites in Elizabeth and Gawler). Most SA seats have double figure percentage votes for the Greens, with exceptions being Sturt & Makin both borderline as to whether they’ll edge over 10, and the the two completely rural seats which still have both seen a significant increase in Green Vote (Grey 7.4%, Barker  8.4% – both almost double the 2007 figure). The best is Mayo which is now over 17% for the Greens. The electorate I know best is Adelaide, which had over 13% after just falling short of double figures last time. While we say a steady increase in our good areas (places like Unley, Goodwood, inner city, Mile End), what is really notable is the big swings in the northern areas of the electorate where we traditionally get few votes. These are working class areas which are very strong for the ALP (and some of the areas where I spent all day yesterday). Some of the individual polling booth swings to the Greens are Blair Athol (6%), Blair Athol North (4.8), Greenacres (5.3), Kilburn (4.5), Nailsworth (5.9), Northfield (7.5), Northfield South (6.6) and Northgate (6.2). In each case this corresponds roughly to a doubling of the vote to get the total percentage into double figures except for Northgate which went from 3% to 9%.

Grayndler
Of note in NSW is the seat of Grayndler where it looks like the Greens are going to get an excellent two party preferred result against Labor, though the ABC site still shows a 2PP with ALP/Libs. The Greens vote was over 25%. This is quite like Melbourne in 2007.

In general in the rest of NSW and in the other states the results were a bit more varied, but in all cases the Greens vote increased significantly.

It hasn’t turned up yet at electionleflets.org.au but according to this thread at Mess & Noise there is a leaflet being distributed in Melbourne which says ”Make no mistake – A vote for any other party in Melbourne risks handing government to Tony Abbott and the Liberals”. So Labor are flat out trying to deceive people about the voting system to scare them away from voting Green. This is pathetic. It’s obviously no coincidence that it’s coming out at the last minute when there is little time for a response.

Suppose you are in Melbourne, want to vote Green, and definitely don’t want Tony Abbott to get in. The basic point is that the Liberals have no chance whatsoever in Melbourne. For them to win they would firstly have to outpoll the Greens, and secondly pick up the preferences of pretty much every Greens voter. It’s not going to happen. And what’s more you changing your first preference between Greens & Labor isn’t going to change it even if it would happen. For the Liberals to win it would mean that even if all Greens voters who preferred Labor to Liberals switched their first preference back to Labor then they would still fall short – otherwise these preferences would elect them when the Greens are eliminated anyway. But once again, this is not a realistic scenario in the first place.

If you vote Green and preference Labor ahead of the Liberals then there’s two realistic possibilities. Either your first preferences helps to elect Adam Bandt for the Greens after the Liberals are eliminated (if enough of their preferences go to Bandt), or Bandt gets eliminated and your preference for Labor helps to elect them.

The other thing they might be suggesting is that if Bandt wins then he could support an Abbott Government in a hung parliament – something he has clearly stated that he will not do.

The Greens candidate for the electorate of Melbourne has confirmed he would side with Labor if he wins the seat and the parliament is hung. Despite expressing disappointment about Prime Minister Julia Gillard’s positions on climate change and asylum seekers, Greens candidate Adam Bandt yesterday said he would work with Labor to deliver a ”stable, progressive and effective” government.

”Tony Abbott’s conservative positions on many areas, including women’s rights, climate change and our rights at work, do not reflect the views of the Melbourne electorate,” Mr Bandt said. ”It is clear – and I expect the election will confirm – that an overwhelming majority of people in Melbourne do not want an Abbott government.”

This tactic from Labor shows a real contempt for the voters of Melbourne and may well backfire on them.

On polling day I’ll be handing out how to vote (HTV) cards for the Greens. I’d encourage others who want to support the Greens to do the same, it’s not too late to volunteer, there’s always a need for more. I’d like to say a bit about why I do this, and my past experiences.

Firstly, I’d happily see HTVs banned. They don’t really serve any particularly useful purpose these days (apparently in the past ballots didn’t show party affiliations so HTVs were actually rather helpful), however as long as they are allowed then I will hand them out for the Greens since otherwise other parties (particularly the well resourced majors) get an additional advantage. Occasionally people accuse the Greens of hypocrisy on this issue, but as far as I’m concerned the Greens will achieve more by getting people elected to Parliament then unilaterally giving up HTVs and losing elections as a result. This isn’t a “win at all costs” mentality, just a matter of weighing up different factors. Ultimately a political party is about getting people elected to advance the parties policies, so helping out on polling day, the most important day for a political party, is one of the best things you can do. Before first volunteering I’d already been a Greens voter for a while but was frustrated at them not getting elected and felt that I had to do more.

So what is it like when you work at a polling booth? Even though I’d happily do away with it, I also quite enjoy it. It feels good to be taking an active part in democracy, and it’s good to witness up close how well our elections are run. The attitude of voters varies, the most common are probably the people who walk past without taking anything, or the people who take one of everything. It’s very rare for anyone to be rude to the volunteers, many people are friendly, and some even express appreciation for the fact that you are volunteering your time. I have always found there to be a good rapport between volunteers from various parties. People tend to not get into details political discussions, but just enjoy meeting up with other people who have a similar commitment and interest in politics. Regardless of ideology we all have in common that we are giving up our time because we care about what happens in elections. Quite a few volunteers are there because of personal connections with candidates as well, they’re not all hard core followers of politics and you can end up chatting about all sorts of things at quiet times.

At the practical level, all it really involves is handing out bits of paper. You’re not expected to be an expert on your party’s policies, or all the details of how preferences work or anything like that. If someone asks a question you can just answer as best as you can, and can always refer people to the polling officials for neutral advice.

Some people have ideas about the best strategy (be the first or the last to hand things out), but every polling booth has it’s own layout and voter numbers which determines how people will approach and where the volunteers might stand. I just observe for a while to get a feel for how it’s working and try to find a good spot where the maximum number of people who come in get to take one of my HTVs if they want one. I don’t like situations where the voters have to run a gauntlet of people handing out HTVs though some locations tend to inevitably lead to this sort of thing. You don’t want to be overbearing, but also you don’t want to be meekly standing at the back, basically try to find a position where the people who take one of everything are guaranteed to not miss out on yours, but also so the people who don’t want anything can get through easily without any hassles. Sometimes there’s a rush and you can’t offer one to everyone, I think that chasing after people is not a good idea but see it happen sometimes, you just have to accept that you might not give one to every person who comes through. The main thing is to be polite to everyone (voters, both on the way in and out, fellow volunteers regardless of who they are representing, and the polling officials), and enjoy helping your candidate do as well as they can. And go to the party afterwards too!

An Onymous Lefty has also posted on this topic.

There seems to be a number of people lately advocating an informal vote in the upcoming election, most famously Mark Latham on 60 Minutes (which should already be a giveaway that it might not be the most well-thought out position). The motivation  seems to be a disillusionment with both major parties, which I can understand, but even in that situation voting informal is simply a stupid waste.

In first case, I want to consider a particular subset of those talking about voting informal, which are the ones who I’ve seen make comments like “I’ll vote Green in the Senate and informal in the lower house”. This is really, really stupid. It shows a complete failure to comprehend the way our voting system works. If you dislike both major parties, but there is actually a party you do like it is lunacy not to vote for them. People seem to think that voting informally is going to make some grand statement that will make the majors take notice. Well it won’t, it will just look like one more idiot who can’t follow the instructions. Lets even take it to the extreme, suppose 50% of an electorate deliberately voted informally. One of the majors will still win based on the two party preferred vote of the other 50%. There is no allowance for the result not to count. Now consider on the otherhand if those 50% voted for other candidates. Would this not make the majors take notice since they would be in danger of actually losing their seats. Voting informally does not make a statement, it’s abstaining from saying anything at all. Voting for a party whose policies you believe in is making a statement. This means that one of your preferences has to go to one of the major parties – well so what? If you really don’t prefer one over the other then toss a coin. It’s still better than voting informally. The fact that your preference may end up with one of them does not make them any more likely to win the seat – they still will if you vote informal. The only way you change this is by building up other options. For example the people who voted for the Greens in Melbourne 2007 helped to put them in a winning position this time. If they do win it, then I think it will make it even easier for them to win more seats next time as people realise that iti is a very real possibility. Also as I’ve pointed out before, a vote for the Greens gives them public funding to allow them to build the party to the point that the majors can be seriously challenged, and also rather than a say nothing informal vote, a vote for the Greens actually does give the majors some idea of why you didn’t vote for them and can lead to a change in policy. All of this applies just a well if there is some other candidate other than the Greens who you prefer as well.The fact that you have to choose preferences for every other party is a good thing  – it actually reduces the power of the major parties as it allows for people to vote for other options without “wasting their vote”.

About the only case I can imagine where someone might make a serious case for an informal vote is if there is absolutely no candidate in their electorate that they like at all. In that case, I’d still advocate voting for them in order of least worst, but there’s more as well. We live in a democracy. If you don’t like the options then start your own party, run as a candidate, or if there’s a party you like but you don’t like some features or their particular candidate then join the party and get involved in policy development and preselection. There are lots of people getting out there and doing hours of unpaid volunteer work (and donating money) for parties and candidates who are unlikely to win at this election, but at least they are engaging in democracy and trying to build viable alternatives to the major parties. In some ways I have more respect for the person who puts in work for a party I strongly disagree with than the person who says “it’s hopeless, I’m voting informal” but has similar political leanings to me.

The ABC have set up an interactive election map, go see it here.

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In the first part, I pointed you in the direction of information about how the voting system works, but you were not yet able to find out exactly who you could vote for. Now all of the ballot papers are finalised so this post is about where you can get information on the candidates you can vote for.
All of the voting info is available at the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC),
in particular you can find out about the location of polling places, how to do pre-poll votes (you can vote earlier if busy on polling day) and information on the ballot papers for both houses. For ballot paper information I’d recommend the ABC as a better source as the information is set out a little better.

While the press largely focuses on who will be PM, there is much more to it than that. You will elect a local member and some state senators. Who your local member is will have an effect on who forms Government and hence who the PM is, but you need to weigh up various factors beyond just the personality of the PM – what do you think of your prospective local member, what do you think of their parties policies. The Senate is another matter again, many people do not necessarily vote for the same party in both houses. Be aware of the role of the Senate and consider your options. On top of that, remember that you are choosing preferences, not just one candidate, while your choice of number 1 is always important (in particular it determines public funding for candidates), your other preferences may also be important and require serious consideration. Below I address each of the two houses separately:

The House of Representatives

To see you HoR ballot paper you’ll need to know your electorate (do that here). Once you know your electorate then you can go here to Antony Green’s election guide and look at the details. In particular you can see all of the candidates for your electorate, the number of candidates varies between 3 and 11 depending on which one you’re in. There is some candidate info provided there, but not necessarily for all candidates. If you want to know about the other candidates you can try an internet search for them or their party (if they have one). Also look out for info in your letterbox, and watch out for any public forums that take place in your electorate. If you’re not sure of who to vote for then a public forum can be a great way to meet the candidates and here them speak. Keep an eye out in your local paper for any that are advertised. While you should be concerned about what the candidate is like as an individual, also keep in mind that if they represent a party then this will give a very strong indication of how they will vote in parliament so party policy is also important. You may have a candidate who you like as a person, but choose not to vote for them because you disagree with the party policy they are bound to support, or on the other hand you may vote for a candidate without knowing much about them personally just because you want to support their party. If you want to know more about a particular candidate try to contact them directly – the AEC has contact details for all candidates. Remember that you need to rank all candidates in order of preference, so it’s not enough to pick just your favourite, you need to have some idea of what you think of each one. Often this will just be a matter of what you think of their party, and in most cases there are only two likely winners, so you may not be too bothered about who the rest are.

The Senate

To find your candidates for the Senate you just need to know which state or territory you are in rather than a local electorate. Each state will elect 6 senators, and each territory elects 2. Once again Antony Green has the details. In particular note which Senators are continuing (and hence not up for re-election) so you’re not confused when you can’t vote for one you like, or put one you don’t like last. There is a list of all of the Senate candidates for your state and their party affiliations. You’ll see many more parties represented than in the lower house, so you may want to do some research to find out who they all are. Just as in the HoR, when voting you are giving preferences to all candidates, but in the Senate you have the option of an above the line vote, where you number just one party or grouping above the line, and your preferences are allocated according to the preference ticket they have submitted to the AEC. You can see all of the preference tickets here. These can give also give an idea of which parties are similar to others, but you do have to be careful inferring too much from these preferences as sometimes parties make deals which do not necessarily reflect their political philosophies. Who is preferenced last is probably a more reliable indicator than who is preferenced first.

If you want to allocate your own preferences below the line there are a couple of sites that help you plan this in advance (a better idea than trying to work it out on the spot), they are http://belowtheline.cc/ and https://www.belowtheline.org.au/. I strongly recommend reading Antony Green’s comments on these in this post as well.

If you want to gain a better understanding of how preference flows work then you can play around with Antony Green’s Senate Calculator.